Chris Lydon had a particularly good episode of Open Source, today (9/11/16) - focusing on why Trump is surging in the polls.
A summary, and the full audio are at http://radioopensource.org/trumps-reality-effect/ It's well worth listening to - it will scare the pants off you, and reinforce the importance of electing a Democratic majority in the House & Senate.
Some high points:
- This season is somewhat like the Kennedy-Nixon debate - Reality TV is the new medium, and Trump is a master showman. He's connecting extremely well with his audience.
- He's taking a very different approach to messaging. He's not delivering heavily scripted material, he's always live. The analogy is to TV sports - he attracts attention because he's happening "right now." And a lot of the ways he's connecting to people are unconscious - body language, expressions.
- We, on the Left, talk about "reality-based" politics - but the Republicans, and particularly Trump have a very different definition. We talk about facts. To the other side it's about 'creating reality' - much in the sense that "Reality TV" is not about reality the way we think of it.
- His audience is the middle of the country, and unlike the past few rounds of Republicans, he's not focusing on wedge issues - he's talking about "you're getting screwed." (kind of like Bill Clinton and "I feel your pain.") He's connecting.
- His audience (and most of us) don't like the status quo, or the establishment, and feel it's time for a change, any change. They don't read the NY Times, or WAPO - and whenever the "elite" attack Trump, he RISES in his audience's eyes.
- If the 40% of folks who don't normally vote (and don't poll as likely voters) show up, they're more likely to turn out for Trump - he's energizing them in ways that Hillary is not.
All in all, I'm left very scared that a Trump presidency is quite possible. Which leads me to two conclusions:
- every vote for Hillary will count
- we could still end up with Trump - which means we'd better do our damnedest to take the House and Senate away from the Republicans - otherwise we could be very, very screwed
Miles Fidelman
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